www.chicagotribune.com/sns-201202141600--tms--poltodayctnyq-a20120215feb15,0,319499.column
Jules Witcover
Tribune Media Services
February 15, 2012
WASHINGTON -- The winnowing process in the Republican
presidential nomination race has now reduced the field to four
candidates -- Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Newt
Gingrich -- each of whom has a legitimate rationale to keep
going.
Romney continues to have the most money and largest field
organization. Santorum has recent, if modest, primary or caucus
successes to sustain him. Gingrich has his immense ego and a
rabid following to drive him on. And Paul has his own goal of
advancing a libertarian strain in the Republican Party quite
apart from achieving the nomination, and an idealistic and
undaunted youth brigade behind him.
With Romney failing to gain clear majorities of voters in the
preliminaries to date, and with no message that seems to promise
a broader constituency, there's no reason for the other
candidates to fold up. The free televised debates, though
temporarily in suspension, will resume soon, enabling them
remain visible to millions of voters.
Between now and the next primaries in Arizona and Michigan on
Feb. 28, the Super-PACs supporting Romney and Gingrich can be
expected to fire a host of negative advertising at Santorum. The
latest New York Times/CBS News survey has him at 30 percent
support to 27 for Romney, 12 for Paul and only 10 Gingrich.
The former House speaker has been fading so fast that ordinarily
a candidate in his straits would be expected to drop out soon.
But Gingrich has vowed to stay in the race into the convention,
and a combination of more impressive debate performances and his
immense self-assurance could well keep him going.
So what happens if this quartet of presidential wannabes hangs
in, with none of them catching fire but each of them picking up
a share of the national convention delegates as the process
proceeds? With many states allocating them in proportion to the
percentage of votes won in the primaries and caucuses, split
decisions in many states seem entirely possible this year.
To clinch the Republican nomination this year, 1,144 delegates
will be required and the nose count is only just beginning.
According to the CBS News tally so far, Romney has 100 committed
delegates to 44 for Santorum, 29 for Gingrich and 15 for Paul.
Unless Romney does a much better job articulating his personal
narrative and agenda, it's not inconceivable that the current
mixed bag of results will continue.
Santorum, heady over his recent surge, already is talking of
dealing Romney another setback in his native state of Michigan,
where his father George was a very popular governor and where
Mitt himself was raised. Such an outcome would be at least a
psychological jolt to Romney's stalling campaign.
A dozen more Republican contests in early March, including a
primary in his adopted Massachusetts and in the key swing state
of Ohio, could clarify the picture, but they also could
reinforce the muddled race. Most of the largest and
delegate-rich states, including New York, Texas and
Pennsylvania, will not hold their primaries until April, and
California not until June, all incentives for the four surviving
Republicans to endure through them.
After the last state contests are over, if no candidate has
acquired the delegate majority for nomination, Republicans could
see the first deal in a smoke-filled room since 1920, when from
a field of nearly a dozen vote-getters the Republicans finally
chose Sen. Warren G. Harding of Ohio on the tenth ballot.
That year, the brokered convention fired up the Republicans, and
Harding was elected. But the same year the Democratic nominee,
Gov. James M. Cox of Ohio, needed 38 ballots in a similar
situation to be picked, and he lost.
This summer, there would be no any guarantee in a brokered
convention that any of the candidates who have slogged through
the process would be anointed. Some states might belatedly put
forward favorite sons, further complicating the picture. Even
the opportunistic Sarah Palin might jump in. Could some dark
horse who hasn't competed in the primaries and caucuses be
nominated? In this crazy Republican year, it seems anything is
possible.
(Jules Witcover's latest book is Joe Biden: A Life of Trial and
Redemption" (William Morrow). You can respond to this column at
juleswitcover@comcast.net.)
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