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America Will Struggle After Coronavirus. These Charts Show Why.

This article is part of "The America We Need," a Times Opinion series exploring how the nation can emerge from this crisis stronger, fairer and more free. Read the introductory editorial and the editor’s letter.

America’s economy has almost doubled in size over the last four decades, but broad measures of the nation’s economic health conceal the unequal distribution of gains. A small portion of the population has pocketed most of the new wealth, and the coronavirus pandemic is laying bare the consequences of the unequal distribution of prosperity.

Consider first the most commonly quoted measure of the nation’s success — gross domestic product — in the chart below:

1980198519901995200020052010020406080100%Bottom 50%Middle 40%Top 0.01%Per capita GDP

G.D.P. measures a country’s total output. In the U.S., it has risen 79 percent since 1980, after adjusting for inflation and population growth.

Over the same 40 years, the after-tax income of the bottom half of earners has risen only 20 percent ...

The after-tax income of earners near the middle has also badly trailed G.D.P., rising only 50 percent...

But for the very wealthy, the story is completely different. Their after-tax incomes have risen much faster than G.D.P. — up 420 percent since 1980.

Inequality didn’t cause the coronavirus crisis. But it is making the crisis much worse, having created an economy in which many Americans are struggling to get by, and are vulnerable to any interruption of work or income and any illness.

On this page, we present dozens of ways to look at American life that together provide a more meaningful picture than G.D.P. There is reason to expect that many of these indicators are already beginning to look worse, as the country grapples with both a pandemic and a recession. Together, they also help show the areas in which Americans will struggle to recover from this crisis.

Incomes have stagnated. But not for the rich.

One way to think about the rise in inequality is to imagine how different the economy would be if inequality hadn’t soared over the past 40 to 50 years. In that scenario, with the same G.D.P. that we have today but with 1980 levels of inequality, every American household in the bottom 90 percent of income would be earning about $12,000 more — not just this year, but permanently.

In effect, each household in this bottom 90 percent is sending a check for $12,000 to every household in the top 1 percent, year after year after year.

Since Jan. 1, 2011, a family in the bottom 90 percent has effectively given the rich ...
$110,268.52

The stagnation of income for most Americans has caused a sharp decline in arguably the most salient definition of economic progress: Do you earn more than your parents did at the same age?

The answer was yes for 92 percent of Americans born in 1940. Even if they had to cope with unemployment, divorce, illness or another financial challenge, almost all grew up to out-earn their parents (controlling for inflation). Among Americans born in 1980, however, the share was only 50 percent. Living the American dream is now akin to a coin flip.

Born in 1940? You would almost definitely

make more than your parents.

Chance of making more than your parents if born in...

1940

92%

1950

79

1960

62

1970

61

1980

Born in 1980? You only had a 50-50 chance of making more than your parents.

 

50

Source: “The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940” (See notes)

Another way to see how inequality has skyrocketed: The changing ratio between the pay of C.E.O.s and the pay of typical workers:

Executive pay packages

have skyrocketed

CEO-to-worker compensation ratio

300

200

100

0

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Source: Economic Policy Institute

Over this same period, taxes on the wealthy have also fallen much more than for any other group.

Boomers are richer. The rest are poorer.

The trends on wealth are, if anything, starker.

In 2016 the median American household had a lower net worth — about 30 percent lower — than the median household in 2007. How could this be, given the bull market during much of that period? The answer is that most Americans own little or no stock. Their main asset is their home.

The affluent, of course, do tend to own stock, and the median net worth of the richest 10 percent of households rose 13 percent from 2007 to 2016 (the last year for which the Fed has released data).

Those with the most wealth saw gains since 2007

Change in net worth over 2007-2016, by percentile

90th percentile of net worth

+13%

-15

75th percentile

-30

Median household

-37

25th percentile

Everyone else is worse off

Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances

The trends are similar over the long term.

Whose net worth increased the most? The rich

Change in median net worth since 1989

Richest 10%

80%

60

40

20

All families

0

-20

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

‘16

Note: 2016 dollars. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation

Overall, the richest 0.1 percent of American households own 19.6 percent of the nation’s total wealth, up from 15.9 percent in 2005 and 7.4 percent in 1980. The richest 0.1 percent now have the same combined net worth as the bottom 85 percent.

The wealth trends have been especially hard on younger Americans. The median net worth of Americans under age 35 — who started off substantially poorer on average than older Americans — is 40 percent lower than the net worth of Americans under 35 was in 2004. The net worth of Americans over age 65, by contrast, has risen 9 percent over the same period. The Boomers, in short, are richer than their predecessors, and Millennials and Generation X are poorer than their predecessors.

No generation has seen their net worth grow quite like older Americans

Change in median net worth since 1989

65 and

older

+50%

55–64

0

<35

45–54

35–44

-50%

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Younger Americans have less wealth than in the past

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation

Racial inequities have also widened. The median wealth of white households is now 10 times higher than the median wealth of black households. In 1992, the multiple was seven to one.

Younger Americans have less wealth than in the past

White Americans have seen their net worth climb

Median net worth

White non-Hispanic

$150K

100

But it’s barely budged for black Americans

50

Black non-hispanic

0

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Note: 2016 dollars. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation

The richer live longer than the rest of us

The trends in health and life expectancy are also deeply worrisome.

Rich and poor Americans used to have fairly similar lifespans. Now, however, Americans in the bottom fourth of the income distribution die about 13 years younger on average than those in the top fourth.

Life expectancy has actually fallen for some lower-income Americans

Life expectancy at

age 50 among men

Born in 1930

Born in 1960

Lowest income

But the rich added more than seven years

Low

Middle

High

Highest income

75 years old

80

85

90

Life expectancy at

age 50 among women

Born in 1930

Born in 1960

Lowest income

Rich women can expect

to live over 90

Low

Middle

High

Highest income

75 years old

80

85

90

Source: The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

No other rich country has suffered such slow growth in life expectancy. In 1980, Americans lived roughly as long as the British and French did. Not anymore:

Life expectancy at birth

Japan

84

years old

France

Canada

82

United Kingdom

80

United States

78

China

76

74

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

The United States is one of few developed countries where life expectancy is actually falling

Source: World Bank

One cause: The uniquely expensive and inefficient medical system in the United States. Treatments, procedures and drugs all cost more than in other countries. Those premiums lift the incomes of companies and people in the health care sector, but they come at the expense of other Americans.

Low income Americans are less

likely to have health insurance

Share without health insurance, by income

<$20k

22%

$20k - $40k

22

>$40k

9

Share without health insurance, by education

Less than high school

30%

High school

17

Some college

11

College graduate

5

Same for people who didn’t

graduate high school

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation

Another reason for the widening gap is “deaths of despair” — from suicide, alcoholism and drug abuse. The rate of these deaths among American adults (ages 25 to 64) without a four-year college degree has nearly tripled since the early 1990s. More now die from these causes than from cancer.

For Americans with a college degree, the “deaths of despair” rate has risen only modestly over the same period — and is now less than one-fourth as high as it is for people without a degree.

Those without a college

degree die more often from

“deaths of despair”

They also drink more

than college grads

Average number of drinks (on days when

drinking) among non-Hispanic whites

aged 45-54

“Deaths of despair” per 100,000

non-Hispanic whites aged 45-54

Non-

college

2.5

100

2.0

50

1.5

College

grads

0

1.0

1992

2016

1994

2016

Source: “Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism” by Anne Case and Angus Deaton.

Smoking rates have fallen much more for the affluent than the poor. Only 7 percent of adults with income above $100,000 smoke. About 14 percent of adults with income between $35,000 and $100,000 smoke, as do 21 percent with income below $35,000.

Who still smokes? Mostly those with lower incomes

Smokes “every day” or “some days”, by household income

<$35k

21%

$35k–75k

15

$75k–$100k

13

>$100k

7

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Daily life has also become significantly harder for Americans on the wrong side of the class divide. The chronic-pain gap has widened, with about 60 percent of adults without a college degree experiencing neck, back or joint pain.

Those without a college degree say they feel more pain

Share of non-Hispanic whites aged 45-54

experiencing neck, back or joint pain

Non-college

60%

50

College grads

40

30

1998

2016

Source: “Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism” by Anne Case and Angus Deaton.

And a larger share of Americans — especially men — are not working than in the past. Many of them aren’t looking for work, which means they aren’t counted as officially unemployed. The group includes former factory workers who have not been able to find decent-paying new jobs.

A smaller share of men are working today

Workforce participation, individuals aged 25-54

100%

Men

80

Women

60

40

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

The decline of labor unions plays a role in many of these trends. Without collective bargaining, many workers struggle to receive wages that keep up with the growth of their company’s profits. Many also feel less connected to their company and to their colleagues than they once did.

Union membership rates of employed wage and salary workers

20%

15

10

Union memberhip

has plummeted

5

0

1990

2000

2010

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Family life has diverged

A greater share of children in the United States live with only one parent23 percent — than in any other country.

Nearly a quarter of American kids live in single-parent homes

Share of children under age 18 in single-parent households

United States

23%

United Kingdom

21

Russia

18

Sweden

18

Denmark

17

France

16

Netherlands

16

Source: Pew Research Center

The trend has been driven mostly by the rise of single-parent families among the middle class and poor.

Mothers with a bachelor degree are far more likely to be married

Children in married households, by mother’s level of education

90%

Mother had a

bachelor’s degree

80

High school or

some college

70

Less than

high school

60

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Source: IFS

About 77 percent of upper-income Americans between the ages of 25 and 55 are married. Only 29 percent of low-income Americans are.

Make a lot of money? You’re far more likely to be married

Share married, by income level

High income

77%

Middle

58

Low income

29

Source: American Community Survey, 2018

Educational outcomes have diverged too

There has been a surge of college-going among children from all economic groups over the last few decades. But there has not been a surge in the share of lower- and middle-income students who graduate from college.

Many of those who fail to finish college end up with the miserable combination of student debt and no degree. The number of higher-income students who finish college, however, has risen sharply.

Wealthy students are more likely to graduate

Share with degrees, by income quintile

 

60%

Highest income

40

High

Middle

20

Low

Lowest income

0

Born in 1970

Born in 1980

But that number has barely changed for lower-income students

Source: Fabian Pfeffer, “Growing Wealth Gaps in Education,” the journal Demography.

Research has consistently shown that the benefits of college — in terms of income, health and happiness — are large, but that those benefits accrue overwhelmingly to graduates rather than to people who merely earn some credits.

One reason for the growing inequality in college graduation has been sharp cuts in states’ spending on higher education. These cuts have left colleges with fewer resources and also led to big tuition increases, even after taking financial aid into account.

Net college price (tuition, fees, room and board)

$15.4k

$15k

College is only getting

more expensive

10

5

0

1992

‘94

‘96

‘98

2000

‘02

‘04

‘06

‘08

2010

‘12

‘14

‘16

‘18

2020

Note: For public four-year in-state colleges. Source: CollegeBoard

Given all of this, it makes sense that so many Americans have soured on their own country. For almost 20 years, through economic booms and busts and through presidencies of both parties, most Americans have said the country was headed in the wrong direction.

They’re right about that.

Majority of Americans think the country is on the wrong track

"All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?"

75%

Wrong track

50

Right

direction

25

Mixed

Unsure

0

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Note: Chart excludes other answers. Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal