America Will Struggle After Coronavirus. These Charts Show Why.
By David Leonhardt and Yaryna Serkez
This article is part of "The America We Need," a Times Opinion series exploring how the nation can emerge from this crisis stronger, fairer and more free. Read the introductory editorial and the editor’s letter.
America’s economy has almost doubled in size over the last four decades, but broad measures of the nation’s economic health conceal the unequal distribution of gains. A small portion of the population has pocketed most of the new wealth, and the coronavirus pandemic is laying bare the consequences of the unequal distribution of prosperity.
Consider first the most commonly quoted measure of the nation’s success — gross domestic product — in the chart below:
G.D.P. measures a country’s total output. In the U.S., it has risen 79 percent since 1980, after adjusting for inflation and population growth.
Over the same 40 years, the after-tax income of the bottom half of earners has risen only 20 percent ...
The after-tax income of earners near the middle has also badly trailed G.D.P., rising only 50 percent...
But for the very wealthy, the story is completely different. Their after-tax incomes have risen much faster than G.D.P. — up 420 percent since 1980.
Inequality didn’t cause the coronavirus crisis. But it is making the crisis much worse, having created an economy in which many Americans are struggling to get by, and are vulnerable to any interruption of work or income and any illness.
On this page, we present dozens of ways to look at American life that together provide a more meaningful picture than G.D.P. There is reason to expect that many of these indicators are already beginning to look worse, as the country grapples with both a pandemic and a recession. Together, they also help show the areas in which Americans will struggle to recover from this crisis.
Incomes have stagnated. But not for the rich.
One way to think about the rise in inequality is to imagine how different the economy would be if inequality hadn’t soared over the past 40 to 50 years. In that scenario, with the same G.D.P. that we have today but with 1980 levels of inequality, every American household in the bottom 90 percent of income would be earning about $12,000 more — not just this year, but permanently.
In effect, each household in this bottom 90 percent is sending a check for $12,000 to every household in the top 1 percent, year after year after year.
The stagnation of income for most Americans has caused a sharp decline in arguably the most salient definition of economic progress: Do you earn more than your parents did at the same age?
The answer was yes for 92 percent of Americans born in 1940. Even if they had to cope with unemployment, divorce, illness or another financial challenge, almost all grew up to out-earn their parents (controlling for inflation). Among Americans born in 1980, however, the share was only 50 percent. Living the American dream is now akin to a coin flip.
Born in 1940? You would almost definitely
make more than your parents.
Chance of making more than your parents if born in...
1940
92%
1950
79
1960
62
1970
61
1980
Born in 1980? You only had a 50-50 chance of making more than your parents.
50
Source: “The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940” (See notes)
ai2html-settings
settings_version: 0.100.0
image_format: auto
write_image_files: true
responsiveness: fixed
max_width:
output: one-file
png_number_of_colors: 128
jpg_quality: 60
use_lazy_loader: true
show_completion_dialog_box: true
last_updated_text:
headline:
leadin:
summary:
notes:
sources:
credit: By The New York Times
show_in_compatible_apps: true
display_for_promotion_only: false
constrain_width_to_text_column: false
size: full
scoop_asset_id:
scoop_username:
scoop_slug:
scoop_external_edit_key:
Born in 1940? You would almost definitely make more than your parents.
Chance of making more than your
parents if born in...
1940
92%
1950
79
1960
62
1970
61
1980
50
Born in 1980? You only had a 50-50 chance of making more than your parents.
Source: “The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940” (See notes)
Another way to see how inequality has skyrocketed: The changing ratio between the pay of C.E.O.s and the pay of typical workers:
Executive pay packages
have skyrocketed
CEO-to-worker compensation ratio
300
200
100
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: Economic Policy Institute
Executive pay packages
have skyrocketed
CEO-to-worker compensation ratio
300
278
200
100
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: Economic Policy Institute
Over this same period, taxes on the wealthy have also fallen much more than for any other group.
Boomers are richer. The rest are poorer.
The trends on wealth are, if anything, starker.
In 2016 the median American household had a lower net worth — about 30 percent lower — than the median household in 2007. How could this be, given the bull market during much of that period? The answer is that most Americans own little or no stock. Their main asset is their home.
The affluent, of course, do tend to own stock, and the median net worth of the richest 10 percent of households rose 13 percent from 2007 to 2016 (the last year for which the Fed has released data).
Those with the most wealth saw gains since 2007
Change in net worth over 2007-2016, by percentile
90th percentile of net worth
+13%
-15
75th percentile
-30
Median household
-37
25th percentile
Everyone else is worse off
Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances
Those with the most wealth saw gains since 2007
Change in net worth over 2007-2016, by percentile
90th percentile of net worth
+13%
-15
75th percentile
-30
Median household
-37
25th percentile
Everyone else is worse off
Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances
The trends are similar over the long term.
Whose net worth increased the most? The rich
Change in median net worth since 1989
Richest 10%
80%
60
40
20
All families
0
-20
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
‘16
Note: 2016 dollars. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Whose net worth increased the most? The rich
Change in median net worth since 1989
80%
Richest 10%
60
40
20
All families
0
-20
1989
1995
2001
2007
2013
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Overall, the richest 0.1 percent of American households own 19.6 percent of the nation’s total wealth, up from 15.9 percent in 2005 and 7.4 percent in 1980. The richest 0.1 percent now have the same combined net worth as the bottom 85 percent.
The wealth trends have been especially hard on younger Americans. The median net worth of Americans under age 35 — who started off substantially poorer on average than older Americans — is 40 percent lower than the net worth of Americans under 35 was in 2004. The net worth of Americans over age 65, by contrast, has risen 9 percent over the same period. The Boomers, in short, are richer than their predecessors, and Millennials and Generation X are poorer than their predecessors.
No generation has seen their net worth grow quite like older Americans
Change in median net worth since 1989
65 and
older
+50%
55–64
0
<35
45–54
35–44
-50%
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Younger Americans have less wealth than in the past
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
No generation has seen their net worth grow quite like older Americans
Change in median net worth since 1989
65 and
older
+50%
55–64
0
<35
45–54
35–44
-50%
1990
‘95
‘00
‘05
‘10
‘15
Younger Americans have less wealth than in the past
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Racial inequities have also widened. The median wealth of white households is now 10 times higher than the median wealth of black households. In 1992, the multiple was seven to one.
Younger Americans have less wealth than in the past
White Americans have seen their net worth climb
Median net worth
White non-Hispanic
$150K
100
But it’s barely budged for black Americans
50
Black non-hispanic
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Note: 2016 dollars. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
White Americans have seen their net worth continue to climb
Median net worth
$150K
White non-Hispanic
100
50
Black non-hispanic
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
‘15
But it’s barely budged for black Americans
Note: 2016 dollars. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
The richer live longer than the rest of us
The trends in health and life expectancy are also deeply worrisome.
Rich and poor Americans used to have fairly similar lifespans. Now, however, Americans in the bottom fourth of the income distribution die about 13 years younger on average than those in the top fourth.
Life expectancy has actually fallen for some lower-income Americans
Life expectancy at
age 50 among men
Born in 1930
Born in 1960
Lowest income
But the rich added more than seven years
Low
Middle
High
Highest income
75 years old
80
85
90
Life expectancy at
age 50 among women
Born in 1930
Born in 1960
Lowest income
Rich women can expect
to live over 90
Low
Middle
High
Highest income
75 years old
80
85
90
Source: The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Life expectancy has actually fallen for some lower-income Americans
Life expectancy
at age 50
among men
Born in 1930
Born in 1960
Lowest income
Low
Middle
High
Highest income
75 years old
80
85
90
But the rich added more than seven years
Life expectancy
at age 50 among women
Lowest income
Low
Middle
High
Highest income
75 years old
80
85
90
Rich women can expect to live over 90
Source: The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
No other rich country has suffered such slow growth in life expectancy. In 1980, Americans lived roughly as long as the British and French did. Not anymore:
Life expectancy at birth
Japan
84
years old
France
Canada
82
United Kingdom
80
United States
78
China
76
74
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
The United States is one of few developed countries where life expectancy is actually falling
Source: World Bank
Life expectancy at birth
Japan
84
years old
France
Canada
82
U.K.
80
U.S.
78
China
76
74
1980
‘85
‘90
‘95
‘00
‘05
‘10
‘15
The United States is one of few developed countries where life expectancy is actually falling
Source: World Bank
One cause: The uniquely expensive and inefficient medical system in the United States. Treatments, procedures and drugs all cost more than in other countries. Those premiums lift the incomes of companies and people in the health care sector, but they come at the expense of other Americans.
Low income Americans are less
likely to have health insurance
Share without health insurance, by income
<$20k
22%
$20k - $40k
22
>$40k
9
Share without health insurance, by education
Less than high school
30%
High school
17
Some college
11
College graduate
5
Same for people who didn’t
graduate high school
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Low income Americans are less
likely to have health insurance
Share without health insurance, by income
<$20k
22%
$20k - $40k
22
>$40k
9
Share without health insurance, by education
Less than
high school
30%
High school
17
Some college
11
College graduate
5
Same for people who didn’t
graduate high school
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Another reason for the widening gap is “deaths of despair” — from suicide, alcoholism and drug abuse. The rate of these deaths among American adults (ages 25 to 64) without a four-year college degree has nearly tripled since the early 1990s. More now die from these causes than from cancer.
For Americans with a college degree, the “deaths of despair” rate has risen only modestly over the same period — and is now less than one-fourth as high as it is for people without a degree.
Those without a college
degree die more often from
“deaths of despair”
They also drink more
than college grads
Average number of drinks (on days when
drinking) among non-Hispanic whites
aged 45-54
“Deaths of despair” per 100,000
non-Hispanic whites aged 45-54
Non-
college
2.5
100
2.0
50
1.5
College
grads
0
1.0
1992
2016
1994
2016
Source: “Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism” by Anne Case and Angus Deaton.
Those without a college degree
die more often from
“deaths of despair”
Non-
college
100
50
College
grads
0
1992
2016
“Deaths of despair” per 100,000
non-Hispanic whites aged 45-54
They also drink more
than college grads
Non-
college
2.5
2.0
College
grads
1.5
1.0
1994
2016
Average number of drinks (on days when drinking)
among non-Hispanic whites aged 45-54
Source: “Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism” by Anne Case and Angus Deaton.
Smoking rates have fallen much more for the affluent than the poor. Only 7 percent of adults with income above $100,000 smoke. About 14 percent of adults with income between $35,000 and $100,000 smoke, as do 21 percent with income below $35,000.
Who still smokes? Mostly those with lower incomes
Smokes “every day” or “some days”, by household income
<$35k
21%
$35k–75k
15
$75k–$100k
13
>$100k
7
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Who still smokes? Mostly those with lower incomes
Smokes “every day” or “some days”,
by household income
<$35k
21%
$35k–75k
15
$75k–$100k
13
>$100k
7
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Daily life has also become significantly harder for Americans on the wrong side of the class divide. The chronic-pain gap has widened, with about 60 percent of adults without a college degree experiencing neck, back or joint pain.
Those without a college degree say they feel more pain
Share of non-Hispanic whites aged 45-54
experiencing neck, back or joint pain
Non-college
60%
50
College grads
40
30
1998
2016
Source: “Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism” by Anne Case and Angus Deaton.
Those without a college degree say they feel more pain
Share of non-Hispanic whites aged 45-54
experiencing neck, back or joint pain
Non-
college
60%
50
College
grads
40
30
1998
2016
Source: “Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism” by Anne Case and Angus Deaton.
And a larger share of Americans — especially men — are not working than in the past. Many of them aren’t looking for work, which means they aren’t counted as officially unemployed. The group includes former factory workers who have not been able to find decent-paying new jobs.
A smaller share of men are working today
Workforce participation, individuals aged 25-54
100%
Men
80
Women
60
40
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
A smaller share of men are working today
Workforce participation,
individuals aged 25-54
100%
Men
80
Women
60
40
‘70
‘80
‘90
‘00
‘10
1960
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The decline of labor unions plays a role in many of these trends. Without collective bargaining, many workers struggle to receive wages that keep up with the growth of their company’s profits. Many also feel less connected to their company and to their colleagues than they once did.
Union membership rates of employed wage and salary workers
20%
15
10
Union memberhip
has plummeted
5
0
1990
2000
2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Union membership rates of employed
wage and salary workers
20%
15
10.5%
10
Union membership
has plummeted
5
0
1990
2000
2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Family life has diverged
A greater share of children in the United States live with only one parent — 23 percent — than in any other country.
Nearly a quarter of American kids live in single-parent homes
Share of children under age 18 in single-parent households
United States
23%
United Kingdom
21
Russia
18
Sweden
18
Denmark
17
France
16
Netherlands
16
Source: Pew Research Center
Nearly a quarter of American kids live in single-parent homes
Share of children under age 18 in
single-parent households
United States
23%
United Kingdom
21
Russia
18
Sweden
18
Denmark
17
France
16
Netherlands
16
Source: Pew Research Center
The trend has been driven mostly by the rise of single-parent families among the middle class and poor.
Mothers with a bachelor degree are far more likely to be married
Children in married households, by mother’s level of education
90%
Mother had a
bachelor’s degree
80
High school or
some college
70
Less than
high school
60
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: IFS
Mothers with a bachelor degree are far more likely to be married
Children in married households, by mother’s level of education
90%
Mother had a
bachelor’s
degree
80
High school or
some college
70
Less than
high school
60
‘85
1980
‘90
‘00
‘10
Source: IFS
About 77 percent of upper-income Americans between the ages of 25 and 55 are married. Only 29 percent of low-income Americans are.
Make a lot of money? You’re far more likely to be married
Share married, by income level
High income
77%
Middle
58
Low income
29
Source: American Community Survey, 2018
Source: American Community Survey, 2018
Make a lot of money?
You’re far more likely to be married
Share married, by income level
High income
77%
Middle
58
Low income
29
Source: American Community Survey, 2018
Educational outcomes have diverged too
There has been a surge of college-going among children from all economic groups over the last few decades. But there has not been a surge in the share of lower- and middle-income students who graduate from college.
Many of those who fail to finish college end up with the miserable combination of student debt and no degree. The number of higher-income students who finish college, however, has risen sharply.
Wealthy students are more likely to graduate
Share with degrees, by income quintile
60%
Highest income
40
High
Middle
20
Low
Lowest income
0
Born in 1970
Born in 1980
But that number has barely changed for lower-income students
Source: Fabian Pfeffer, “Growing Wealth Gaps in Education,” the journal Demography.
Wealthy students are more
likely to graduate
Share with degrees, by income quintile
60%
Highest income
40
High
Middle
20
Low
Lowest income
0
Born in 1970
Born in 1980
But that number has barely changed
for lower-income students
Source: Fabian Pfeffer, “Growing Wealth Gaps in Education,” the journal Demography.
Research has consistently shown that the benefits of college — in terms of income, health and happiness — are large, but that those benefits accrue overwhelmingly to graduates rather than to people who merely earn some credits.
One reason for the growing inequality in college graduation has been sharp cuts in states’ spending on higher education. These cuts have left colleges with fewer resources and also led to big tuition increases, even after taking financial aid into account.
Net college price (tuition, fees, room and board)
$15.4k
$15k
College is only getting
more expensive
10
5
0
1992
‘94
‘96
‘98
2000
‘02
‘04
‘06
‘08
2010
‘12
‘14
‘16
‘18
2020
Note: For public four-year in-state colleges. Source: CollegeBoard
Net college price (tuition, fees, room and board)
$15.4k
$15k
10
College is only getting more expensive
5
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Note: For public four-year in-state colleges.
Source: CollegeBoard
Given all of this, it makes sense that so many Americans have soured on their own country. For almost 20 years, through economic booms and busts and through presidencies of both parties, most Americans have said the country was headed in the wrong direction.
They’re right about that.
Majority of Americans think the country is on the wrong track
"All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?"
75%
Wrong track
50
Right
direction
25
Mixed
Unsure
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Note: Chart excludes other answers. Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal
"All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?"
75%
Wrong
track
50
Right
direction
25
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Majority of Americans think
the country is on the wrong track
Note: Chart excludes other answers. Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal